Premier League (England) · Sun, Mar 9 · 16:30 · Manchester United vs Arsenal
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Manchester United36%——
OursMarket
Draw24%——
OursMarket
Arsenal40%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester United
WinLossDrawWinDraw
- Mar 6 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-1
- Feb 26 · v Ipswich Town (H)3-2
- Feb 22 · at Everton (A)2-2
- Feb 16 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)0-1
- Feb 7 · v Leicester City (H)2-1
Arsenal
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Mar 4 · at PSV (A)7-1
- Feb 26 · at Nottingham Forest (A)0-0
- Feb 22 · v West Ham United (H)0-1
- Feb 15 · at Leicester City (A)2-0
- Feb 5 · at Newcastle United (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Manchester United | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-2 | 5-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.