Premier League (England) · Sun, Mar 15 · 14:00 · Manchester United vs Aston Villa
Likeliest: Manchester United win · 48%
A 29% away win. The market says 21%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester United48%56%−7
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Aston Villa29%21%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 57% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 57% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 79% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 44% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 72% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester United
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Mar 4 · at Newcastle United (A)1-2
- Mar 1 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-1
- Feb 23 · at Everton (A)1-0
- Feb 10 · at West Ham United (A)1-1
- Feb 7 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)2-0
Aston Villa
LossDrawLossLossWin
- Mar 12 · at LOSC Lille (A)1-0
- Mar 4 · v Chelsea (H)1-4
- Feb 27 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)0-2
- Feb 21 · v Leeds United (H)1-1
- Feb 14 · v Newcastle United (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Manchester United | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.