Premier League (England) · Sun, Oct 25 · 14:00 · Manchester United vs Bournemouth
Likeliest: Manchester United win · 52%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester United52%51%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%0
OursMarket
Bournemouth23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 61% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 68% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester United
LossDrawDrawLossDraw
- Oct 18 · at Leeds United (A)1-1
- Oct 13 · at Atletico Madrid (A)0-2
- Oct 10 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)1-1
- Sep 20 · at Fulham (A)1-1
- Sep 16 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)2-3
Bournemouth
WinLossLossWinWin
- Oct 18 · v Sunderland (H)2-0
- Oct 15 · v SK Sturm Graz (H)3-0
- Oct 10 · at Chelsea (A)1-5
- Sep 20 · v Liverpool (H)0-1
- Sep 17 · at Real Sociedad (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Manchester United | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.