Premier League (England) · Mon, Apr 27 · 19:00 · Manchester United vs Brentford
Likeliest: Manchester United win · 54%
We make it 50% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 40%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester United54%49%+4
OursMarket
Draw21%25%−4
OursMarket
Brentford25%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 61% | −9 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 51% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 75% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 66% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester United
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Apr 18 · at Chelsea (A)1-0
- Apr 13 · v Leeds United (H)1-2
- Mar 20 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)2-2
- Mar 15 · v Aston Villa (H)3-1
- Mar 4 · at Newcastle United (A)1-2
Brentford
DrawDrawDrawDrawDraw
- Apr 18 · v Fulham (H)0-0
- Apr 11 · v Everton (H)2-2
- Mar 21 · at Leeds United (A)0-0
- Mar 16 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)2-2
- Mar 3 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Manchester United | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 3-6-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.