FA Cup (England) · Sun, Jan 11 · 16:30 · Manchester United vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Likeliest: Manchester United win · 47%
A 30% away win. The market says 25%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester United47%50%−4
OursMarket
Draw24%24%−1
OursMarket
Brighton & Hove Albion30%25%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 61% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 62% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 75% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 50% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 67% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester United
LossWinDrawDrawDraw
- Jan 7 · at Burnley (A)2-2
- Jan 4 · at Leeds United (A)1-1
- Dec 30 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)1-1
- Dec 26 · v Newcastle United (H)1-0
- Dec 21 · at Aston Villa (A)1-2
Brighton & Hove Albion
DrawLossDrawWinDraw
- Jan 7 · at Manchester City (A)1-1
- Jan 3 · v Burnley (H)2-0
- Dec 30 · at West Ham United (A)2-2
- Dec 27 · at Arsenal (A)1-2
- Dec 20 · v Sunderland (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Manchester United | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.