EFL Cup (England) · Wed, Sep 16 · 19:00 · Manchester United vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Likeliest: Manchester United win · 53%
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester United53%52%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%23%0
OursMarket
Brighton & Hove Albion24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 67% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester United
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Sep 13 · v Manchester City (H)0-1
- Sep 10 · v Sabah FK (H)4-0
- Sep 6 · at Everton (A)2-2
- Aug 30 · v Ipswich Town (H)5-2
- Aug 22 · at Hull City (A)0-2
Brighton & Hove Albion
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Sep 13 · at Coventry City (A)5-0
- Sep 5 · v Leeds United (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · at Chelsea (A)3-4
- Aug 27 · v Tromsø IL (H)4-0
- Aug 23 · v Aston Villa (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Manchester United | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.