Women's Super League (England) · Sun, Sep 13 · 11:00 · Manchester United vs Chelsea FC
Likeliest: Chelsea FC win · 60%
A tight one: we make it 60% for the away win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester United16%19%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Chelsea FC60%57%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 40% | 43% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 84% | 81% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 21% | 25% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester United
Loss
- Sep 4 · at London City Lionesses (A)1-2
Chelsea FC
WinWinDraw
- Sep 5 · v Aston Villa (H)1-1
- Sep 2 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-0
- Aug 26 · v Real Sociedad (H)5-2