Premier League (England) · Sun, Mar 1 · 14:00 · Manchester United vs Crystal Palace
Likeliest: Manchester United win · 47%
A 30% away win. The market says 16%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester United47%62%−15
OursMarket
Draw23%22%+1
OursMarket
Crystal Palace30%16%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 58% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 55% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 84% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 38% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 79% | −18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester United
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Feb 23 · at Everton (A)1-0
- Feb 10 · at West Ham United (A)1-1
- Feb 7 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)2-0
- Feb 1 · v Fulham (H)3-2
- Jan 25 · at Arsenal (A)3-2
Crystal Palace
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Feb 26 · v Zrinjski (H)2-0
- Feb 22 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)1-0
- Feb 19 · at Zrinjski (A)1-1
- Feb 11 · v Burnley (H)2-3
- Feb 8 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Manchester United | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Manchester United form·Crystal Palace form·Head-to-head record