Premier League (England) · Mon, Nov 24 · 20:00 · Manchester United vs Everton
Likeliest: Manchester United win · 45%
A 31% away win. The market says 21%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester United45%54%−9
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−1
OursMarket
Everton31%21%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 55% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 79% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 46% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 72% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester United
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- Nov 8 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-2
- Nov 1 · at Nottingham Forest (A)2-2
- Oct 25 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)4-2
- Oct 19 · at Liverpool (A)2-1
- Oct 4 · v Sunderland (H)2-0
Everton
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Nov 8 · v Fulham (H)2-0
- Nov 3 · at Sunderland (A)1-1
- Oct 26 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)0-3
- Oct 18 · at Manchester City (A)0-2
- Oct 5 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Manchester United | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.