Premier League (England) · Sun, Feb 1 · 14:00 · Manchester United vs Fulham
Likeliest: Manchester United win · 50%
A 26% away win. The market says 18%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester United50%61%−11
OursMarket
Draw24%21%+2
OursMarket
Fulham26%18%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 60% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 57% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 82% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 39% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 79% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 77% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester United
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- Jan 25 · at Arsenal (A)3-2
- Jan 17 · v Manchester City (H)2-0
- Jan 11 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)1-2
- Jan 7 · at Burnley (A)2-2
- Jan 4 · at Leeds United (A)1-1
Fulham
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Jan 24 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)2-1
- Jan 17 · at Leeds United (A)0-1
- Jan 10 · v Middlesbrough (H)3-1
- Jan 7 · v Chelsea (H)2-1
- Jan 4 · v Liverpool (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Manchester United | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.