Premier League (England) · Sun, Aug 30 · 15:30 · Manchester United vs Ipswich Town
Likeliest: Manchester United win · 40%
We make it 70% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 59%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester United40%67%−28
OursMarket
Draw22%19%+3
OursMarket
Ipswich Town38%13%+25
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 59% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 52% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 87% | −25 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 33% | +28 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 81% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 83% | −33 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester United
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Aug 22 · at Hull City (A)0-2
- May 24 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)3-0
- May 17 · v Nottingham Forest (H)3-2
- May 9 · at Sunderland (A)0-0
- May 3 · v Liverpool (H)3-2
Ipswich Town
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Aug 25 · v Leicester City (H)3-1
- Aug 22 · v Sunderland (H)2-1
- May 2 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)3-0
- Apr 28 · at Southampton (A)2-2
- Apr 25 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Manchester United | Ipswich Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Manchester United form·Ipswich Town form·Head-to-head record