Premier League (England) · Mon, Apr 13 · 19:00 · Manchester United vs Leeds United
Likeliest: Manchester United win · 50%
A 27% away win. The market says 17%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester United50%61%−11
OursMarket
Draw23%22%0
OursMarket
Leeds United27%17%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 56% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 54% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 83% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 39% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 78% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester United
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Mar 20 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)2-2
- Mar 15 · v Aston Villa (H)3-1
- Mar 4 · at Newcastle United (A)1-2
- Mar 1 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-1
- Feb 23 · at Everton (A)1-0
Leeds United
LossWinDrawDrawDraw
- Apr 5 · at West Ham United (A)2-2
- Mar 21 · v Brentford (H)0-0
- Mar 15 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-0
- Mar 8 · v Norwich City (H)3-0
- Mar 3 · v Sunderland (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Manchester United | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 2-6-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 1-8-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Manchester United form·Leeds United form·Head-to-head record