Premier League (England) · Sun, May 3 · 14:30 · Manchester United vs Liverpool
Likeliest: Manchester United win · 56%
A 56% home win. The market says 42%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester United56%42%+14
OursMarket
Draw22%25%−3
OursMarket
Liverpool22%33%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 66% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 67% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 58% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 56% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester United
WinDrawLossWinWin
- Apr 27 · v Brentford (H)2-1
- Apr 18 · at Chelsea (A)1-0
- Apr 13 · v Leeds United (H)1-2
- Mar 20 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)2-2
- Mar 15 · v Aston Villa (H)3-1
Liverpool
WinLossWinDrawWin
- May 2 · v Danubio (H)3-0
- Apr 25 · at Juventud (A)1-1
- Apr 25 · v Crystal Palace (H)3-1
- Apr 19 · v Nacional (H)1-3
- Apr 19 · at Everton (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Manchester United | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.