Women's Super League (England) · Sat, Oct 3 · 12:30 · Manchester United vs Liverpool FC
Likeliest: Manchester United win · 46%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester United46%46%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Liverpool FC29%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester United
LossLossDrawWin
- Sep 27 · v West Ham United (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Arsenal (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Chelsea FC (H)0-5
- Sep 4 · at London City Lionesses (A)1-2
Liverpool FC
WinDrawLossWin
- Sep 27 · v Everton (H)2-0
- Sep 18 · at Manchester City (A)2-4
- Sep 13 · v Tottenham FC (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Charlton Athletic WFC (A)4-0