Premier League (England) · Sat, Jan 17 · 12:30 · Manchester United vs Manchester City
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 45%
A 32% home win. The market says 27%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester United32%27%+5
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
Manchester City45%48%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 65% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 52% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 73% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 36% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester United
WinDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Jan 11 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)1-2
- Jan 7 · at Burnley (A)2-2
- Jan 4 · at Leeds United (A)1-1
- Dec 30 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)1-1
- Dec 26 · v Newcastle United (H)1-0
Manchester City
DrawDrawDrawWinWin
- Jan 13 · at Newcastle United (A)2-0
- Jan 10 · v Exeter City (H)10-1
- Jan 7 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)1-1
- Jan 4 · v Chelsea (H)1-1
- Jan 1 · at Sunderland (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Manchester United | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 7-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Manchester United form·Manchester City form·Head-to-head record