Premier League (England) · Sun, Sep 13 · 15:30 · Manchester United vs Manchester City
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester United28%30%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Manchester City46%45%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 69% | 65% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 40% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester United
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Sep 10 · v Sabah FK (H)4-0
- Sep 6 · at Everton (A)2-2
- Aug 30 · v Ipswich Town (H)5-2
- Aug 22 · at Hull City (A)0-2
- May 24 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)3-0
Manchester City
LossWinWinWinWin
- Sep 8 · at FC Porto (A)2-0
- Sep 5 · v Coventry City (H)1-0
- Aug 28 · at Crystal Palace (A)4-1
- Aug 23 · v Bournemouth (H)2-1
- Aug 16 · at Arsenal (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Manchester United | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Manchester United form·Manchester City form·Head-to-head record