Premier League (England) · Fri, Dec 26 · 20:00 · Manchester United vs Newcastle United
Likeliest: Newcastle United win · 43%
A 43% away win. The market says 35%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester United33%38%−5
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
Newcastle United43%35%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 65% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 62% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 52% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester United
WinDrawWinDrawLoss
- Dec 21 · at Aston Villa (A)1-2
- Dec 15 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)4-4
- Dec 8 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)4-1
- Dec 4 · v West Ham United (H)1-1
- Nov 30 · at Crystal Palace (A)2-1
Newcastle United
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Dec 20 · v Chelsea (H)2-2
- Dec 17 · v Fulham (H)2-1
- Dec 14 · at Sunderland (A)0-1
- Dec 10 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)2-2
- Dec 6 · v Burnley (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Manchester United | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Manchester United form·Newcastle United form·Head-to-head record