Premier League (England) · Sun, May 17 · 11:30 · Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest
Likeliest: Manchester United win · 48%
A 27% away win. The market says 19%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester United48%59%−11
OursMarket
Draw25%22%+2
OursMarket
Nottingham Forest27%19%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 60% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 81% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 41% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 78% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 76% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester United
LossWinWinWinDraw
- May 9 · at Sunderland (A)0-0
- May 3 · v Liverpool (H)3-2
- Apr 27 · v Brentford (H)2-1
- Apr 18 · at Chelsea (A)1-0
- Apr 13 · v Leeds United (H)1-2
Nottingham Forest
WinWinWinLossDraw
- May 10 · v Newcastle United (H)1-1
- May 7 · at Aston Villa (A)0-4
- May 4 · at Chelsea (A)3-1
- Apr 30 · v Aston Villa (H)1-0
- Apr 24 · at Sunderland (A)5-0
| Last 10 games | Manchester United | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Manchester United form·Nottingham Forest form·Head-to-head record