Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Nov 3 · 20:00 · Manchester United vs Roma
Likeliest: Manchester United win · 40%
Likely scores: 1–1 11% · 1–2 9% · 2–1 8%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester United40%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Roma35%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 63% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester United
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 31 · at Chelsea (A)0-2
- Oct 25 · v Bournemouth (H)0-3
- Oct 21 · at Como (A)1-4
- Oct 18 · at Leeds United (A)1-1
- Oct 13 · at Atletico Madrid (A)0-2
Roma
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 31 · at Udinese (A)5-2
- Oct 27 · v Cagliari (H)4-2
- Oct 24 · at Napoli (A)3-3
- Oct 20 · v ŠK Slovan Bratislava (H)4-0
- Oct 17 · v Genoa (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Manchester United | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.