Premier League (England) · Sat, Feb 7 · 12:30 · Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur
Likeliest: Manchester United win · 52%
A 26% away win. The market says 20%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester United52%59%−7
OursMarket
Draw23%21%+1
OursMarket
Tottenham Hotspur26%20%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 80% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 41% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 79% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 75% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester United
DrawLossWinWinWin
- Feb 1 · v Fulham (H)3-2
- Jan 25 · at Arsenal (A)3-2
- Jan 17 · v Manchester City (H)2-0
- Jan 11 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)1-2
- Jan 7 · at Burnley (A)2-2
Tottenham Hotspur
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Feb 1 · v Manchester City (H)2-2
- Jan 28 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)2-0
- Jan 24 · at Burnley (A)2-2
- Jan 20 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)2-0
- Jan 17 · v West Ham United (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Manchester United | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Manchester United form·Tottenham Hotspur form·Head-to-head record