Premier League (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 16:30 · Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur
Likeliest: Manchester United win · 57%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester United57%56%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Tottenham Hotspur20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 63% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 73% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester United
DrawWinLossLossDraw
- Sep 20 · at Fulham (A)1-1
- Sep 16 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)2-3
- Sep 13 · v Manchester City (H)0-1
- Sep 10 · v Sabah FK (H)4-0
- Sep 6 · at Everton (A)2-2
Tottenham Hotspur
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Sep 19 · v Aston Villa (H)2-3
- Sep 15 · at Liverpool (A)1-3
- Sep 12 · v Everton (H)0-0
- Sep 5 · at Nottingham Forest (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Newcastle United (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Manchester United | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Manchester United form·Tottenham Hotspur form·Head-to-head record