Premier League (England) · Thu, Dec 4 · 20:00 · Manchester United vs West Ham United
Likeliest: Manchester United win · 49%
A 29% away win. The market says 15%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester United49%65%−16
OursMarket
Draw22%20%+2
OursMarket
West Ham United29%15%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 85% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 35% | +16 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 80% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 81% | −18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester United
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Nov 30 · at Crystal Palace (A)2-1
- Nov 24 · v Everton (H)0-1
- Nov 8 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-2
- Nov 1 · at Nottingham Forest (A)2-2
- Oct 25 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)4-2
West Ham United
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Nov 30 · v Liverpool (H)0-2
- Nov 22 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)2-2
- Nov 8 · v Burnley (H)3-2
- Nov 2 · v Newcastle United (H)3-1
- Oct 24 · at Leeds United (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Manchester United | West Ham United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Manchester United form·West Ham United form·Head-to-head record