Premier League (England) · Tue, Dec 30 · 20:15 · Manchester United vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Likeliest: Manchester United win · 45%
A 30% away win. The market says 12%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester United45%70%−25
OursMarket
Draw25%18%+7
OursMarket
Wolverhampton Wanderers30%12%+19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 60% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 51% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 88% | −19 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 30% | +25 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 82% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 86% | −26 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester United
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Dec 26 · v Newcastle United (H)1-0
- Dec 21 · at Aston Villa (A)1-2
- Dec 15 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)4-4
- Dec 8 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)4-1
- Dec 4 · v West Ham United (H)1-1
Wolverhampton Wanderers
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Dec 27 · at Liverpool (A)1-2
- Dec 20 · v Brentford (H)0-2
- Dec 13 · at Arsenal (A)1-2
- Dec 8 · v Manchester United (H)1-4
- Dec 3 · v Nottingham Forest (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Manchester United | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 0-0-10 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 0-1-9 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Manchester United form·Wolverhampton Wanderers form·Head-to-head record