1. Lig (Turkey) · Sun, Sep 20 · 14:00 · Manisa FK vs İstanbulspor
Likeliest: Manisa FK win · 48%
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manisa FK48%48%0
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
İstanbulspor27%27%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manisa FK
DrawDrawLossLossDraw
- Sep 13 · at Fatih Karagümrük (A)1-1
- Sep 7 · v Bursaspor (H)1-2
- Sep 3 · at Iğdır FK (A)2-4
- Aug 30 · v Bodrum FK (H)0-0
- Aug 24 · at Sivasspor (A)2-2
İstanbulspor
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Sep 14 · at Kayserispor (A)0-4
- Sep 7 · v Iğdır FK (H)1-2
- Sep 3 · at Bursaspor (A)0-4
- Aug 29 · v Fatih Karagümrük (H)1-1
- Aug 23 · at Van Spor Futbol Kulübü (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Manisa FK | İstanbulspor |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.