League One (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Mansfield Town vs Bromley
Likeliest: Mansfield Town win · 55%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mansfield Town55%55%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Bromley20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 57% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 45% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mansfield Town
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 6 · at Port Vale (A)0-2
- Sep 19 · at Burton Albion (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · v Huddersfield Town (H)0-0
- Sep 5 · at Bradford City (A)0-1
- Sep 2 · at Reading (A)0-5
Bromley
LossDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 6 · at Crawley Town (A)0-4
- Sep 22 · v Brentford U21 (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Huddersfield Town (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Blackpool (A)2-2
- Sep 7 · v AFC Wimbledon (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Mansfield Town | Bromley |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.