League One (England) · Sat, May 2 · 14:00 · Mansfield Town vs Cardiff City
Likeliest: Mansfield Town win · 44%
A 44% home win. The market says 26%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mansfield Town44%26%+18
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−1
OursMarket
Cardiff City32%49%−18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 63% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 51% | +18 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 74% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 35% | +24 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mansfield Town
DrawDrawWinWinDraw
- Apr 28 · at Peterborough United (A)0-0
- Apr 25 · at Huddersfield Town (A)4-1
- Apr 21 · at Stockport County (A)1-0
- Apr 18 · v Luton Town (H)2-2
- Apr 14 · at Leyton Orient (A)0-0
Cardiff City
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Apr 25 · v Northampton Town (H)5-1
- Apr 22 · v Port Vale (H)1-0
- Apr 18 · at Reading (A)3-1
- Apr 14 · at Huddersfield Town (A)1-1
- Apr 11 · v Bolton Wanderers (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Mansfield Town | Cardiff City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.