League One (England) · Sun, Aug 30 · 14:00 · Mansfield Town vs Luton Town
Likeliest: Mansfield Town win · 47%
A 47% home win. The market says 33%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mansfield Town47%33%+14
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−2
OursMarket
Luton Town28%41%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 59% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 61% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 59% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 67% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 45% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mansfield Town
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Aug 22 · at Peterborough United (A)1-2
- Aug 19 · v Manchester City U21 (H)1-4
- Aug 15 · v Doncaster Rovers (H)2-1
- Aug 9 · v Sheffield United (H)0-3
- May 2 · v Cardiff City (H)5-4
Luton Town
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Aug 27 · at Chelsea (A)0-2
- Aug 22 · v Notts County (H)2-2
- Aug 15 · at Reading (A)4-3
- Aug 8 · at Gillingham (A)3-0
- May 2 · at Bolton Wanderers (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Mansfield Town | Luton Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.