EFL Cup (England) · Sun, Aug 9 · 15:00 · Mansfield Town vs Sheffield United
Likeliest: Mansfield Town win · 58%
We make it 58% for both teams to score. The market says 54%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mansfield Town58%24%+34
OursMarket
Draw21%25%−4
OursMarket
Sheffield United21%51%−30
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 51% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 54% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 49% | +30 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 76% | −34 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 75% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 32% | +42 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mansfield Town
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- May 2 · v Cardiff City (H)5-4
- Apr 28 · at Peterborough United (A)0-0
- Apr 25 · at Huddersfield Town (A)4-1
- Apr 21 · at Stockport County (A)1-0
- Apr 18 · v Luton Town (H)2-2
Sheffield United
WinWinLossLossWin
- May 2 · at Derby County (A)2-1
- Apr 25 · v Preston North End (H)2-3
- Apr 22 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)1-3
- Apr 18 · at Watford (A)2-0
- Apr 11 · v Hull City (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Mansfield Town | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.