LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador) · Sat, Oct 24 · 16:30 · Manta FC vs Deportivo Cuenca
Likeliest: Deportivo Cuenca win · 37%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manta FC30%33%−3
OursMarket
Draw33%30%+3
OursMarket
Deportivo Cuenca37%37%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 70% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 48% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manta FC
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 18 · at Delfín (A)2-4
- Oct 10 · v Técnico Universitario (H)1-0
- Sep 21 · v Orense SC (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · v Aucas (H)0-0
- Sep 8 · at Emelec (A)0-1
Deportivo Cuenca
LossDrawDrawDrawWin
- Oct 16 · v Técnico Universitario (H)2-1
- Oct 11 · at Orense SC (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Mushuc Runa (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at LDU (A)1-1
- Sep 7 · v Libertad (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Manta FC | Deportivo Cuenca |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 0-4-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.