LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador) · Sat, Oct 10 · 19:00 · Manta FC vs Técnico Universitario
Likeliest: Manta FC win · 40%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manta FC40%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw33%30%+2
OursMarket
Técnico Universitario28%28%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 40% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 46% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manta FC
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Sep 21 · v Orense SC (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · v Aucas (H)0-0
- Sep 8 · at Emelec (A)0-1
- Sep 2 · at Macará (A)3-4
- Aug 30 · v Barcelona SC (H)2-0
Técnico Universitario
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Sep 20 · v Delfín (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Leones del Norte (A)1-0
- Sep 5 · v LDU (H)1-3
- Sep 1 · at Delfín (A)0-1
- Aug 29 · v Deportivo Cuenca (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Manta FC | Técnico Universitario |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-3 | 2-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.