Serie B (Italy) · Sun, Aug 30 · 17:00 · Mantova vs Empoli
Likeliest: Mantova win · 64%
A 64% home win. The market says 46%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mantova64%46%+18
OursMarket
Draw20%29%−9
OursMarket
Empoli16%25%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 45% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 52% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 75% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 54% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 71% | +9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 64% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mantova
WinWinLossWinWin
- Aug 22 · at Carrarese (A)2-1
- Aug 16 · at Lazio (A)2-0
- May 8 · at Frosinone (A)0-5
- May 1 · v Monza (H)3-2
- Apr 25 · at Südtirol (A)3-0
Empoli
LossWinDrawDrawWin
- Aug 22 · v Cremonese (H)1-0
- Aug 17 · at Pisa (A)1-1
- May 8 · at Monza (A)2-2
- May 1 · v Avellino (H)1-0
- Apr 25 · at Venezia (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Mantova | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 0-4-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.