Serie B (Italy) · Fri, May 1 · 13:00 · Mantova vs Monza
Likeliest: Mantova win · 46%
We make it 55% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mantova46%20%+26
OursMarket
Draw27%26%0
OursMarket
Monza27%54%−26
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 50% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 52% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 46% | +26 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 80% | −26 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 27% | +35 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mantova
LossWinWinLossWin
- Apr 25 · at Südtirol (A)3-0
- Apr 18 · v Avellino (H)0-2
- Apr 12 · at Spezia (A)2-0
- Apr 6 · v Virtus Entella (H)1-0
- Mar 21 · at Modena (A)1-2
Monza
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Apr 24 · v Modena (H)1-0
- Apr 17 · at Sampdoria (A)3-0
- Apr 11 · v Bari 1908 (H)2-0
- Apr 6 · at Catanzaro (A)1-1
- Mar 21 · v Venezia (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Mantova | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.