Premier Division (South Africa) · Sun, Sep 20 · 13:00 · Marumo Gallants FC vs Orlando Pirates
Likeliest: Orlando Pirates win · 75%
A tight one: we make it 75% for the away win. The market says 71%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Marumo Gallants FC6%9%−3
OursMarket
Draw19%20%0
OursMarket
Orlando Pirates75%71%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 38% | 35% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 25% | 29% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 94% | 91% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 7% | 11% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 0.5 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Marumo Gallants FC
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Sep 12 · at AmaZulu FC (A)0-1
- Sep 4 · v Polokwane City (H)2-2
- Aug 25 · v TS Galaxy (H)2-3
- Aug 19 · at Mamelodi Sundowns (A)0-2
- Aug 14 · at Stellenbosch (A)1-3
Orlando Pirates
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Sep 17 · v Durban City FC (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · v La Cure Sylvester SC (H)3-1
- Sep 6 · at La Cure Sylvester SC (A)0-0
- Sep 1 · at Kruger United (A)4-0
- Aug 25 · v Sekhukhune United (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Marumo Gallants FC | Orlando Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-6-4 | 7-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 80% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-7-3 | 7-3-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.