CAF Champions League (Africa) · Sun, Oct 18 · 18:00 · MAS de Fès vs ASEC Mimosas
Likeliest: MAS de Fès win · 63%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 63% for the home win. The market says 62%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
MAS de Fès63%62%+1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
ASEC Mimosas11%13%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 38% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 44% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 87% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 38% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
MAS de Fès
DrawWinWinDrawLoss
- Oct 14 · at Ittihad Tanger (A)1-2
- Oct 8 · v Raja Club Athletic (H)0-0
- Oct 3 · at Hassania d'Agadir (A)2-1
- Sep 27 · v Renaissance Zemamra (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Rahimo FC (A)0-0
ASEC Mimosas
WinDrawLossDrawWin
- Sep 13 · v ASC Kara (H)2-1
- Sep 6 · at ASC Kara (A)1-1
- May 24 · v Olympique Sport d'Abobo (H)0-1
- May 17 · at Zoman (A)1-1
- May 10 · at San-Pedro (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | MAS de Fès | ASEC Mimosas |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-1 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.