Botola Pro (Morocco) · Sun, Sep 27 · 18:00 · MAS de Fès vs Renaissance Zemamra
Likeliest: MAS de Fès win · 51%
We make it 46% for both teams to score. The market says 41%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
MAS de Fès51%52%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%29%0
OursMarket
Renaissance Zemamra20%19%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 37% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 41% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 81% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 48% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 71% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 73% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
MAS de Fès
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- Sep 12 · at Rahimo FC (A)0-0
- Sep 6 · v Rahimo FC (H)4-1
- Jul 5 · v Olympique Dcheira (H)2-0
- Jul 2 · at Kawkab Athletic Club Marrakech (A)0-0
- Jun 28 · v Union Sportive Yacoub El Mansour (H)2-1
Renaissance Zemamra
LossDrawDrawDrawDraw
- Jul 5 · at AS FAR Rabat (A)0-0
- Jul 2 · v Fath Union Sport (H)1-1
- Jun 28 · at Hassania d'Agadir (A)1-1
- Jun 25 · v Olympic Safi (H)1-1
- Jun 21 · at Ittihad Tanger (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | MAS de Fès | Renaissance Zemamra |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-1 | 1-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.