A-League Men (Australia) · Sat, Oct 24 · 08:40 · Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City
Likeliest: Melbourne Victory win · 37%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Melbourne Victory37%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Melbourne City36%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Melbourne Victory
WinLossDrawWinLoss
- Oct 18 · at Wellington Phoenix (A)1-2
- Oct 14 · v FC Seoul (H)3-0
- Sep 16 · at Thể Công - Viettel (A)1-1
- May 2 · v Sydney (H)0-1
- Apr 25 · at Western Sydney Wanderers (A)2-0
Melbourne City
WinWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · at Auckland FC (A)1-3
- May 2 · at Auckland (A)1-1
- Apr 26 · v Adelaide United (H)1-2
- Apr 18 · at Brisbane Roar (A)3-2
- Apr 12 · v Wellington Phoenix (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Melbourne Victory | Melbourne City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.