Liga 1 (Peru) · Sun, Sep 20 · 01:15 · Melgar vs Sport Boys
Likeliest: Melgar win · 68%
A tight one: we make it 68% for the home win. The market says 66%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Melgar68%66%+2
OursMarket
Draw21%21%−1
OursMarket
Sport Boys11%13%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 46% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 87% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 34% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Melgar
WinDrawLossWinWin
- Sep 12 · at Cusco FC (A)1-0
- Sep 6 · v Asociación Deportiva Tarma (H)3-0
- Sep 1 · at Club Atlético Grau (A)0-1
- Aug 23 · v Alianza Lima (H)1-1
- Aug 15 · at Los Chankas CYC (A)3-0
Sport Boys
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Sep 13 · v Deportivo Garcilaso (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Sport Huancayo (A)1-2
- Aug 30 · v Club Sporting Cristal (H)1-0
- Aug 23 · v Cienciano (H)5-1
- Aug 16 · at CD Moquegua (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Melgar | Sport Boys |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.