3rd Division, Group 2 (Norway) · Mon, Oct 19 · 17:00 · Melhus vs Ranheim 2
Likeliest: Melhus win · 56%
A 24% draw. The market says 17%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Melhus56%35%+21
OursMarket
Draw24%17%+7
OursMarket
Ranheim 220%48%−28
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 83% | −23 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 69% | −11 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 52% | +28 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 65% | −21 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 83% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 42% | +31 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Melhus
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 12 · v Aalesund FK II (H)0-1
- Oct 2 · at Rosenborg BK II (A)4-1
- Sep 26 · v Spjelkavik (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · at Molde FK II (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · v Volda (H)1-2
Ranheim 2
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 12 · v Molde FK II (H)2-3
- Oct 4 · at Spjelkavik (A)5-2
- Sep 26 · v Volda (H)1-3
- Sep 21 · at Nardo (A)1-4
- Sep 13 · v Byasen Toppfotball (H)1-4
| Last 10 games | Melhus | Ranheim 2 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 3.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-0-4 | 2-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.