Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Mar 1 · 16:15 · Metz vs Brest
Likeliest: Brest win · 39%
We make it 59% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 48%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Metz37%29%+8
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−4
OursMarket
Brest39%43%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 48% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 54% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 57% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 71% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 40% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Metz
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Feb 21 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)0-3
- Feb 15 · v Auxerre (H)1-3
- Feb 6 · v LOSC Lille (H)0-0
- Feb 1 · at Angers SCO (A)0-1
- Jan 25 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)2-5
Brest
LossDrawWinDrawWin
- Feb 20 · v Olympique Marseille (H)2-0
- Feb 14 · at LOSC Lille (A)1-1
- Feb 7 · v Lorient (H)2-0
- Feb 1 · at Nice (A)2-2
- Jan 25 · v Toulouse (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Metz | Brest |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.