Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, Aug 8 · 18:45 · Metz vs Guingamp
Likeliest: Guingamp win · 43%
A 43% away win. The market says 27%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Metz32%45%−13
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−3
OursMarket
Guingamp43%27%+17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 48% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 51% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 73% | −17 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 55% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 63% | −20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Metz
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- May 17 · at Nice (A)0-0
- May 10 · v Lorient (H)0-4
- May 2 · v Monaco (H)1-2
- Apr 26 · at Le Havre (A)4-4
- Apr 19 · v Paris (H)1-3
Guingamp
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- May 9 · at Clermont (A)0-1
- May 2 · v Bastia (H)0-1
- Apr 24 · at Red Star (A)2-3
- Apr 17 · at Pau (A)1-2
- Apr 10 · v Grenoble Foot 38 (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Metz | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-4-6 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-2-8 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.