Ligue 1 (France) · Wed, Oct 29 · 18:00 · Metz vs Lens
Likeliest: Metz win · 52%
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Metz52%——
OursMarket
Draw24%——
OursMarket
Lens24%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Metz
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 26 · at LOSC Lille (A)1-6
- Oct 19 · at Toulouse (A)0-4
- Oct 4 · v Olympique Marseille (H)0-3
- Sep 28 · v Le Havre (H)0-0
- Sep 21 · at Monaco (A)2-5
Lens
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 25 · v Olympique Marseille (H)2-1
- Oct 19 · v Paris (H)2-1
- Oct 4 · at Auxerre (A)2-1
- Sep 28 · at Rennes (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v LOSC Lille (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Metz | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-3-7 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.7 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.