Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, May 10 · 19:00 · Metz vs Lorient
Likeliest: Lorient win · 48%
A 48% away win. The market says 43%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Metz30%30%0
OursMarket
Draw22%26%−4
OursMarket
Lorient48%43%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% | 56% | +20 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 59% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 57% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 74% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 41% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Metz
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- May 2 · v Monaco (H)1-2
- Apr 26 · at Le Havre (A)4-4
- Apr 19 · v Paris (H)1-3
- Apr 10 · at Olympique Marseille (A)1-3
- Apr 5 · v Nantes (H)0-0
Lorient
DrawLossWinLossDraw
- May 2 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)2-2
- Apr 26 · v Strasbourg (H)2-3
- Apr 18 · v Olympique Marseille (H)2-0
- Apr 12 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)0-2
- Apr 5 · v Paris (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Metz | Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-3-7 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-2-8 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.