Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, May 2 · 17:00 · Metz vs Monaco
Likeliest: Monaco win · 51%
A 26% home win. The market says 14%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Metz26%14%+12
OursMarket
Draw23%17%+6
OursMarket
Monaco51%69%−18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 71% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 49% | 31% | +18 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 86% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 83% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 34% | 16% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Metz
DrawDrawLossLossDraw
- Apr 26 · at Le Havre (A)4-4
- Apr 19 · v Paris (H)1-3
- Apr 10 · at Olympique Marseille (A)1-3
- Apr 5 · v Nantes (H)0-0
- Mar 22 · at Rennes (A)0-0
Monaco
WinWinLossDrawDraw
- Apr 25 · at Toulouse (A)2-2
- Apr 19 · v Auxerre (H)2-2
- Apr 10 · at Paris (A)1-4
- Apr 5 · v Olympique Marseille (H)2-1
- Mar 22 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Metz | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-3-7 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-2-8 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.