Ligue 1 (France) · Fri, Nov 28 · 19:45 · Metz vs Rennes
Likeliest: Metz win · 50%
We make it 73% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 56%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Metz50%26%+24
OursMarket
Draw22%25%−4
OursMarket
Rennes28%49%−21
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 56% | +16 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 51% | +20 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 74% | −24 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 34% | +29 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Metz
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Nov 23 · at Brest (A)2-3
- Nov 9 · v Nice (H)2-1
- Nov 2 · at Nantes (A)2-0
- Oct 29 · v Lens (H)2-0
- Oct 26 · at LOSC Lille (A)1-6
Rennes
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Nov 22 · v Monaco (H)4-1
- Nov 7 · at Paris (A)1-0
- Nov 2 · v Strasbourg (H)4-1
- Oct 29 · at Toulouse (A)2-2
- Oct 26 · v Nice (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Metz | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.