Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 · Metz vs Rodez AF
Likeliest: Rodez AF win · 50%
A tight one: we make it 50% for the away win. The market says 27%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Metz27%46%−19
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
Rodez AF50%27%+23
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 73% | −23 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 54% | +19 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 35% | 63% | −28 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Metz
DrawWinDrawDrawDraw
- Aug 29 · at Annecy FC (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · v Stade Lavallois (H)1-1
- Aug 14 · at Grenoble Foot 38 (A)0-0
- Aug 8 · v Guingamp (H)2-1
- May 17 · at Nice (A)0-0
Rodez AF
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- Aug 28 · v Pau FC (H)2-2
- Aug 22 · at Nantes (A)5-2
- Aug 14 · at Annecy FC (A)0-2
- Aug 8 · v Stade Lavallois (H)3-1
- May 15 · at Saint-Étienne (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Metz | Rodez AF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-6 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.