Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, Sep 19 · 18:00 · Metz vs Saint-Étienne
Likeliest: Saint-Étienne win · 48%
A tight one: we make it 48% for the away win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Metz24%27%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Saint-Étienne48%47%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 33% | 36% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Metz
DrawDrawDrawWinLoss
- Sep 14 · at Red Star FC (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Rodez AF (H)4-1
- Aug 29 · at Annecy FC (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · v Stade Lavallois (H)1-1
- Aug 14 · at Grenoble Foot 38 (A)0-0
Saint-Étienne
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 12 · at USL Dunkerque (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v Montpellier (H)3-1
- Aug 31 · at Dijon (A)3-2
- Aug 22 · v Grenoble Foot 38 (H)4-0
- Aug 14 · v Clermont Foot (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Metz | Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.