Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 · Metz vs Sochaux
Likeliest: Metz win · 52%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Metz52%52%0
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Sochaux21%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Metz
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 12 · at Dijon (A)2-4
- Sep 19 · v Saint-Étienne (H)2-2
- Sep 14 · at Red Star FC (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Rodez AF (H)4-1
- Aug 29 · at Annecy FC (A)1-1
Sochaux
DrawDrawWinDrawDraw
- Oct 9 · v US Boulogne Côte-d'Opale (H)1-1
- Sep 18 · at Stade Lavallois (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Nantes (H)1-0
- Sep 4 · at Pau FC (A)1-1
- Aug 28 · at Clermont Foot (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Metz | Sochaux |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 2-4-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.