Niké Liga (Slovakia) · Sun, Oct 11 · 13:30 · MFK Ružomberok vs MŠK Žilina
Likeliest: MŠK Žilina win · 45%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 45% for the away win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
MFK Ružomberok29%31%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
MŠK Žilina45%43%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 64% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 65% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 57% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 69% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 42% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
MFK Ružomberok
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Sep 19 · at FC Košice (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v MFK Zemplín Michalovce (H)3-0
- Sep 6 · v FC Spartak Trnava (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · at AS Trenčín (A)1-2
- Aug 22 · v Dukla Banská Bystrica (H)0-1
MŠK Žilina
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 19 · v AS Trenčín (H)2-1
- Sep 13 · at ŠK Slovan Bratislava (A)3-3
- Sep 5 · v FK Železiarne Podbrezová (H)3-1
- Aug 30 · at FC Spartak Trnava (A)3-1
- Aug 23 · v KFC Komárno (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | MFK Ružomberok | MŠK Žilina |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-6 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-2 | 3-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.