Niké Liga (Slovakia) · Sat, Oct 17 · 13:30 · MFK Skalica vs AS Trenčín
Likeliest: MFK Skalica win · 39%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 67% for both teams to score. The market says 58%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
MFK Skalica39%43%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
AS Trenčín33%32%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 58% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 58% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 68% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 57% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 57% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
MFK Skalica
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 10 · v ŠK Slovan Bratislava (H)1-1
- Sep 20 · v FK Železiarne Podbrezová (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Dukla Banská Bystrica (A)2-3
- Sep 5 · at KFC Komárno (A)0-0
- Aug 30 · v DAC 1904 (H)1-6
AS Trenčín
LossLossLossLossWin
- Oct 14 · at FC Lokomotíva Košice (A)1-0
- Oct 10 · v Dukla Banská Bystrica (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · at MŠK Žilina (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v DAC 1904 (H)1-4
- Sep 5 · at MFK Zemplín Michalovce (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | MFK Skalica | AS Trenčín |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-3 | 1-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.