USL Championship (USA) · Sat, Oct 17 · 23:00 · Miami FC vs Charleston Battery
Likeliest: Charleston Battery win · 44%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 44% for the away win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Miami FC29%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+1
OursMarket
Charleston Battery44%43%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 57% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 43% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 2.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Miami FC
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 10 · v Loudoun United FC (H)0-2
- Oct 3 · at FC Tampa Bay Rowdies (A)2-1
- Sep 30 · v SC Jacksonville (H)4-1
- Sep 26 · at Indy Eleven (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · at Rhode Island FC (A)2-1
Charleston Battery
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 14 · at Hartford Athletic (A)1-1
- Oct 10 · v Louisville City FC (H)0-2
- Sep 26 · v Rhode Island FC (H)2-0
- Sep 19 · v Monterey Bay FC (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · at Birmingham Legion FC (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Miami FC | Charleston Battery |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-4 | 3-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.